@article{JLWP2017,
title = {Commodity prices and the EROI of oil: Decreasing surplus energy and it’s effect on agriculture and metal prices},
author = {Johannes Lübbers},
url = {https://www.businesschemistry.org/article/?article=371},
year = {2017},
date = {2017-08-01},
abstract = {We assess the effect of decreasing energy return on investment (EROI) of oil on long-term
commodity price developments. Relying on a price-based approach we show that periods of low
EROIs coincide with periods of high commodity prices. Since 1938, the EROI of oil is the most
important variable for commodity price variations compared to economic growth, interest rates
and uncertainty. Within a structural vector autoregression model the EROI of oil explains up to
30% of commodity price index fluctuations. Our results provide a novel perspective on the
influence of decreasing EROIs of the energy supply mix on long-term commodity price
developments.
},
keywords = {Commodity prices, Energy, EROI},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}