We aim to predict the winner of the FIFA world cup solely based on data. The method applied is not fancy at all, but it should do the trick to get some neat results (spoiler alert: Germany wins!). We use three datasets obtained by Kaggle which contain the outcome of specific pairings between teams, rank, points and the weighted point difference with the opponent. Then, we create a model to predict the outcome of each match during the FIFA world cup 2018. To make the results more appealing, we translate the outcome probabilities to fair odds.
Not only since the recent mega deals of Neymar (~ 220 Million Euro), Coutinho (~ 160 Million Euro) or Dembele (~ 140 Million Euro) the transfers between the European top clubs in football generate extensive media coverage. Supposing this market is a closed system, these incomes should be taxed and reinvested. While the first is beneficial for the whole country, the latter is beneficial for smaller clubs since they can sell young players for higher prices. So high prices and high player salaries should not be a problem, like Zlatan Ibrahimovic stated when entering the PSG squad.