I think most people have played lotteries such as 6aus49 or Eurojackpot (if you’re in Germany or anywhere in Europe) at least once in their lives. Some even play on a regular basis even though gambling will lose them money in the long run, at least, statistically speaking. Despite the fact, lotteries still tend to entice people into accepting small losses for the opportunity of large gains.
This blog entry introduces the theoretical framework for optimizing large portfolios with respect to expected utility by Full-Scale Optimization (FSO) and Differential Evolution (DE).
We aim to predict the winner of the FIFA world cup solely based on data. The method applied is not fancy at all, but it should do the trick to get some neat results (spoiler alert: Germany wins!). We use three datasets obtained by Kaggle which contain the outcome of specific pairings between teams, rank, points and the weighted point difference with the opponent. Then, we create a model to predict the outcome of each match during the FIFA world cup 2018. To make the results more appealing, we translate the outcome probabilities to fair odds.