This blog entry introduces the theoretical framework for optimizing large portfolios with respect to expected utility by Full-Scale Optimization (FSO) and Differential Evolution (DE).
We aim to predict the winner of the FIFA world cup solely based on data. The method applied is not fancy at all, but it should do the trick to get some neat results (spoiler alert: Germany wins!). We use three datasets obtained by Kaggle which contain the outcome of specific pairings between teams, rank, points and the weighted point difference with the opponent. Then, we create a model to predict the outcome of each match during the FIFA world cup 2018. To make the results more appealing, we translate the outcome probabilities to fair odds.